Ten tasters and a 10 percent chance at the poison
Question
Exactly one of wine barrels is poisoned. A king has tasters, and anyone who sips from the poisoned barrel dies exactly one month later; sipping from safe barrels is harmless. The tasters will only take part for a single month, so there is just one round of tasting. What is the largest for which the king can guarantee at least a probability of naming the poisoned barrel?
Short answer
10240. The set of tasters who die can be any of subsets, so give each subset its own group of barrels (each barrel tasted by exactly the tasters in its subset). The death pattern then pins the poison to one group of , and a random guess within it succeeds with probability ; larger forces some pattern to cover more than barrels. Hence .
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Counting and Combinatorics
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
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