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Ten tasters and a 10 percent chance at the poison

Question

Exactly one of nn wine barrels is poisoned. A king has 1010 tasters, and anyone who sips from the poisoned barrel dies exactly one month later; sipping from safe barrels is harmless. The tasters will only take part for a single month, so there is just one round of tasting. What is the largest nn for which the king can guarantee at least a 10%10\% probability of naming the poisoned barrel?

Short answer

10240. The set of tasters who die can be any of 210=10242^{10}=1024 subsets, so give each subset its own group of 1010 barrels (each barrel tasted by exactly the tasters in its subset). The death pattern then pins the poison to one group of 1010, and a random guess within it succeeds with probability 110\tfrac{1}{10}; larger nn forces some pattern to cover more than 1010 barrels. Hence n=10⋅210n=10\cdot 2^{10}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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