Ordering matches against a strong and weak rival
Question
You will play three tennis matches in a row, alternating between two opponents, and you take the title if you win two matches in a row at some point. One opponent, Alice, is harder to beat than the other, Bob. Should you choose the order Alice–Bob–Alice or Bob–Alice–Bob? Reply for Alice–Bob–Alice and for Bob–Alice–Bob.
Short answer
1 (Alice–Bob–Alice). Two consecutive wins are impossible without winning the middle match, so you want the easier opponent there. With win probabilities against Alice and Bob, the chances are for ABA and for BAB, and the first is larger.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
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