Guessing ball colours for shrinking prizes
Question
A box has black and yellow balls. You draw them one by one without replacement, and before each draw you guess its colour. A correct guess pays as many dollars as there are balls in the box just before that draw (, then , then , then ). Playing optimally, what is your expected total payout?
Short answer
dollars. Always guess the colour with more balls left. The first guess is right with probability (worth ), the second with (worth ), the third with (worth ), and the last is certain (worth ), totalling .
Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Conditional Probability, Total Probability, and Bayes' Rule
- Worked Examples — Probability Trees, Monty Hall, and Bayesian Updating
- Expectation, Mean, and Variance
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