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Guessing ball colours for shrinking prizes

Question

A box has 22 black and 22 yellow balls. You draw them one by one without replacement, and before each draw you guess its colour. A correct guess pays as many dollars as there are balls in the box just before that draw (44, then 33, then 22, then 11). Playing optimally, what is your expected total payout?

Short answer

19/319/3 dollars. Always guess the colour with more balls left. The first guess is right with probability 12\tfrac12 (worth 22), the second with 23\tfrac23 (worth 22), the third with 13⋅1+23⋅12=23\tfrac13\cdot1+\tfrac23\cdot\tfrac12=\tfrac23 (worth 43\tfrac43), and the last is certain (worth 11), totalling 193\tfrac{19}{3}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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