Retraining while labels mature
Question
At Friday's close you retrain a model predicting ten-day returns. Which recent observations can supply training labels?
Short answer
Only observations whose complete ten-day outcome is known by the retraining cutoff can supply realised labels. Exclude or explicitly handle incomplete outcomes rather than filling them with future data. Align the training cutoff, market calendar, execution timing and feature availability. If some labels mature at different times, use their individual end timestamps rather than one blanket row offset.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Finance-aware validation
- Cross-Validation and Information Criteria
- Sample Spaces, Events, and the Probability Axioms
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