Skip to content

Prediction intervals versus coefficient intervals

Question

Why is uncertainty about a future return usually larger than uncertainty about its conditional mean?

Short answer

A future observation includes irreducible outcome noise in addition to uncertainty about estimated model parameters. An interval for the conditional mean captures estimation uncertainty; a prediction interval must also account for the conditional outcome distribution. Heteroscedasticity, serial dependence and model misspecification complicate both. State the target, horizon and coverage assumptions rather than labelling every uncertainty band a prediction interval.

Original question and answer written by SelfMadeQuant.com.

See the hint and the full worked solution in the question bank (free account).

Open the worked solution

Lessons behind this question

Start with a free lesson: Normal Distribution is part of a free topic. Create a free account, no card needed, to read it in full with worked solutions.

Read it free