Cross-validation for unseen issuers
Question
A model will be deployed on issuers absent from training. Why is a date-only split insufficient to assess that objective?
Short answer
A date-only split can retain the same issuers in training and test, allowing entity-specific relationships to transfer. Hold out relevant issuer groups as well as respecting chronology, and prevent related entities or duplicated records crossing the split. Evaluate future performance on known issuers separately from performance on new issuers. These are different deployment questions and may require different models.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Finance-aware validation
- Cross-Validation and Information Criteria
- The Bias-Variance Decomposition for Squared-Error Loss
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