A neural network wins only in training
Question
A neural network achieves much lower training loss than a linear model but no consistent outer-period improvement. What would justify keeping it?
Short answer
Retain it only if additional independent evidence supports useful net performance or another operational benefit that outweighs complexity. Compare regularisation, sample-size sensitivity, stability, inference cost and failure modes under the same protocol. A more expressive architecture is not itself a benefit. Record unsuccessful experiments so repeated architecture search does not silently turn the outer periods into tuning data.
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Open the worked solutionLessons behind this question
- Finance-aware validation
- Cross-Validation and Information Criteria
- The Bias-Variance Decomposition for Squared-Error Loss
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