Strategy lab
Every strategy from 151 Trading Strategies and all 101 Formulaic Alphas as formulas you can edit and backtest on ten years of daily stocks, ETFs, futures, forex and crypto data. Free, in your browser.
8.1Foreign exchangeBacktest
Moving averages with HP filter
FX rates are noisy, so smooth out the high-frequency wiggles first (the Hodrick–Prescott filter in the paper), then trade the crossover of two moving averages of the smoothed series.
Note. The HP filter looks ahead, so the lab uses a causal double-exponential smoother instead. Positive means long the quoted pair as written (e.g. long USD/JPY).
Edit anything; the result updates as you type. Lines like window = 20 become sliders.
AssetsLoading…
Hypothetical backtests on daily closes with no slippage unless you add costs. Survivorship bias applies: the stock list is today’s large caps. For learning, not investment advice. Data: Yahoo Finance via yfinance.
- Source
- 151 Trading Strategies
- Section
- 8.1 · Foreign exchange
- Asset class
- Forex
- In the lab
- Full backtest
Moving averages with HP filter (8.1)
FX rates are noisy, so smooth out the high-frequency wiggles first (the Hodrick–Prescott filter in the paper), then trade the crossover of two moving averages of the smoothed series.
Key equation
Lab formula
smooth = trend(close, 20)
sign(sma(smooth, 5) - sma(smooth, 20))The HP filter looks ahead, so the lab uses a causal double-exponential smoother instead. Positive means long the quoted pair as written (e.g. long USD/JPY).
How the backtest works
The formula is evaluated for every asset on every day. Its values become positions at that day’s close, using the portfolio rule you pick, and earn the next day’s close-to-close return. Costs are charged in basis points on the amount traded. Everything runs in your browser on daily data from Yahoo Finance, adjusted for splits and dividends.
More in Foreign exchange
- 8.2 Carry trade
- 8.2.1 High-minus-low carry
- 8.3 Dollar carry trade
- 8.4 Momentum and carry combo
- 8.5 FX triangular arbitrage
Source: Kakushadze, Z. and Serur, J. A. (2018). 151 Trading Strategies. Palgrave Macmillan. SSRN 3247865. Summaries are our own.