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d30 versus d20 with one blind reroll for Bob

Question

Alice holds a fair 3030-sided die and Bob a fair 2020-sided die; each wants the higher number, and Bob wins ties. Both roll. Without seeing Alice's result, Bob may choose to roll his die once more, in which case the second result replaces the first. If Bob plays to maximise his chance of winning, what is the probability that Alice wins?

Short answer

17/3017/30. If Bob's final number is bb, Alice wins with probability 1−b/301-b/30. A fresh roll averages to 1−10.5/30=0.651-10.5/30=0.65, so Bob rerolls exactly when 1−b/30>0.651-b/30>0.65, i.e. b≤10b\le10. Then P(Alice)=120∑b=1120(1−b30)+12(0.65)=145600+195600=1730P(\text{Alice})=\tfrac1{20}\sum_{b=11}^{20}(1-\tfrac b{30})+\tfrac12(0.65)=\tfrac{145}{600}+\tfrac{195}{600}=\tfrac{17}{30}.

Adapted from QuantQuestions.io; question and answer rewritten by SelfMadeQuant.com.

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